The 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico is set to be a spectacle, but the shadow of cartel violence looms large. With the tournament bringing in nearly 1 million fans, the question remains: Will the cartels' influence be contained? The death of drug lord Nemesio "El Mencho" Rubén Oseguera Cervantes in February sparked a violent backlash, with cartel militants setting fire to cargo trucks and buses, and engaging in a destructive campaign across the country. This incident highlighted the ongoing chaos caused by powerful cartels in Mexico. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), led by El Mencho, has been particularly active, and its response to his death serves as a stark reminder of the cartel's reach and power. The Jalisco state city of Guadalajara, a key host location for the World Cup, has a chilling history, with a mass grave discovered in early 2025 containing over 250 bags of human remains just 13 kilometers from the host stadium. This grim reminder of the cartel's influence casts a shadow over the tournament's security. However, FIFA and the Mexican government have implemented a comprehensive strategy, Plan Kukulkan, to ensure a safe and secure environment. This ambitious plan involves deep cooperation between federal, state, and local agencies to guarantee safety around stadiums, training facilities, transport hubs, and tourist sites. The expanded coordination could even benefit Mexico's fight against organized crime post-tournament. Despite the concerns, experts suggest that the cartels may not have as significant an impact as feared. The cartels themselves are scaling down violent activities, recognizing the economic boost the World Cup brings to the local economy. In the first five months of 2026, incidents of organized crime violence in Guadalajara and Monterrey dropped by 30% and 13%, respectively. This self-interest in maintaining a stable environment for tourism is a key factor in their decision. However, the risk of violence post-World Cup remains. Internal disputes within the CJNG and the lack of a clear successor could lead to a resumption of violent activities. The influx of revenue from the tournament may also fuel in-fighting, as the cartel bosses often own local businesses and benefit from the increased tourist flow. The threat of gang-related violence and strikes by teachers further adds to the challenges. Teachers have threatened to disrupt the tournament, demanding salary increases and a reversal of pension reforms. Their chants, "If there is no solution, the ball won't roll," underscore the potential for severe disruption. Chris Sabatini, director of the Latin America programme at Chatham House, warns that the union behind the strike could cause problems during the tournament. The CNTE union's demands and their potential to protest throughout the tournament highlight the complexity of the situation. In conclusion, while the cartels may be scaling down their activities, the risk of violence persists. The World Cup provides a temporary respite, but the underlying issues within the CJNG and the potential for internal disputes to escalate could lead to a resumption of violent activities post-tournament. The Mexican government's efforts to ensure security are commendable, but the shadow of cartel violence will continue to loom over the event, leaving a lasting impact on the country's security landscape.
